The U.S. National Intelligence Council has released the seventh edition of its quadrennial report ‘Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World’.
The report is an unclassified assessment of the forces and dynamics that the NIC anticipates are likely to shape the national security environment over the next 20 years.
“States will face a combination of highly destructive and precise conventional and strategic weapons, cyber activity targeting civilian and military infrastructure, and a confusing disinformation environment. Regional actors, including spoilers such as Iran and North Korea, will jockey to advance their goals and interests, bringing more volatility and uncertainty to the system.”
As for ‘other major powers’ besides the USA and China, the report says that Russia is ‘likely to remain a disruptive power’; while the UK is ‘likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus.
“The United Kingdom is likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus. The United Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities and permanent UN Security Council membership add to its global influence. Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power.”