The First Minister, as even some of her own parliamentarians concede privately, is in a difficult place politically on her flagship policy. Her ‘plan A’ – a joint agreement on indyref2 with the UK Government – is not going to happen.

Sturgeon’s ‘plan B’ – Holyrood ploughing ahead with its own bill without Westminster consent – is questionable legally and may be kicked out by the Supreme Court.

Her final option, namely using the next general election as a ‘de facto referendum’, has been widely panned. Whatever way you look at it, the only route to independence is through a referendum that has the consent of both sides.

The First Minister’s hands are tied on this central point. Her Government is in urgent need of a strategic rethink of its approach to independence.

Instead of focusing on the timing and conduct of a referendum, the Yes movement should concentrate on shifting public opinion. They should be honest about the weaknesses in the independence case and explain why they think the opportunities outweigh the risks.

If Sturgeon is to secure independence, it will be done by winning over ordinary Scots, not judges or Tory leaders.

Want to see more SNP fails? – Transport Matters

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