After the publication of the latest Scottish Medium Term Financial Strategy and new UK data and forecasts, what does the future hold for households and governments? On the economy, while the labour market remains remarkably buoyant, growth remains elusive. In particular, and according to the latest forecasts by the National Institute for Economic and Social Research (NIESR), productivity growth – output per hour worked – is set to be negative this year and average only 0.5 per cent for the four years after that.

Worryingly, on the capital-spend side – which should support productivity improvements – even under the Scottish Government’s ‘upside’ scenario, the funding shortfall remains around £800 million. Very tough decisions loom, at a time when transport infrastructure, housing and energy/net-zero related investment needs are mounting.

Prospects for clear, wise and decisive action are further undermined by the general lack of interest expressed around the Scottish Parliament on this topic. Presentation and discussion of the Medium Term Financial Strategy was allocated just 30 minutes and the parliamentary attendance for even this curtailed debate was pitiful. How can any political party or MSP claim to care about public services when they can’t even be bothered to turn up for one of the most important statements of the year? The equivalent in the House of Commons would see a packed house.

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