Avoid SNP sponsored fatalism – there is NOTHING inevitable about the break-up of the UK – Stephen Bailey

By Stephen Bailey

Here’s how matters stand as concerns the Constitutional Question in the UK:


It is a commonly touted assertion of the SNP that all elections, Westminster or devolved, will be referenda on independence and if they achieve a majority of seats, then this will give them a mandate for independence.

The whole concept of the SNP and its mandate is extremely vexed in many ways and on many levels.

The idea that anti-UK nationalism has a mandate for independence from ANY election, Westminster, devolved, or local council is THE major fallacy at elections for Scottish constituencies and highlights yet another intrinsic flaw in legislative devolution.

The fact is, the SNP has no mandate for independence and never has, ever.

Its victories at Holyrood, Westminster and local council elections represent nothing more than the triumph of a small, vociferous minority (never higher than 36% of the total electorate’s vote) of activists running around and shouting the loudest, drowning out the voice of the overwhelming majority.

They only prove that a small and determined group of obsessed, loud and active zealots and extremists can force their will on the rest of the population, completely skewing the genuine will of the majority of the overall population.

Winning a majority of seats in Holyrood and a majority of Westminster seats in Scotland doesn’t give the SNP any mandate for independence when they only represent around a third of the total registered electorate AND the vast majority of opinion polls on independence in Scotland continue to show a majority for Scotland staying in the Union.

The bottom-line of UK Constitutional Law is that under New Labour’s devolution ‘settlement’, a Holyrood election cannot deliver a mandate for independence, as the Constitution is a reserved matter, regardless of what is in a party’s manifesto (i.e. independence), or their reason for existing being independence. ONLY the Union Parliament at Westminster can deliver a constitutionally legal and democratic mandate for independence. A referendum win would provide a democratic mandate for abolition, but as such polls are only advisory, would not provide a legally binding commitment to do so as referenda are only advisory.

It is therefore established conclusively with the facts of UK Constitutional Law that the SNP, or any other party, CANNOT receive a mandate for separation from the UK from a devolved election and that the objective, verifiable, empirical data demonstrates conclusively that the SNP has FAILED to earn a democratic mandate from Scots for breaking up the UK, even if it was possible under the Constitution.

Please click on the following link for a full discussion on this topic, which includes a comprehensive set of fully referenced and sourced election and other relevant data:


Second, fatalism, the idea that something is going to happen regardless of what or which course of action is taken to avoid it is an extremely dangerous and misguided belief. It seems to have set in among some of those who want to maintain the Union, who appear to have adopted the misguided belief, sponsored by the SNP, that the nationalists represent the will of the Scottish people (despite only winning around a third of the total vote of the Scottish electorate) and should be collaborated with, or that independence is inevitable or both. All these beliefs are erroneous and based upon specious thinking, not hard evidence, which contradicts them (see above for details).

From ordinary UK citizens that want to maintain the Union who seem to give off an air of defeatism and seem to want to acquiesce in SNP rule to leaders of the community (politicians at both national (UK) and devolved levels mostly) who are far too keen on appeasing anti-UK nationalism and who have no idea of how to take the fight to them, certain pro-UK Britons exude an air of downbeat defeatism.

This is toxic, and no good will come of it. It will only aid the continuance of anti-UK nationalist rule and give them undeserved confidence that they can force separation from the rest of the UK on an unwilling public (most opinion polls on Scottish independence show a majority of Scots want Scotland to stay in the UK). They are ruthless, sociopathic, narcissistic, and monomaniacal in their pursuit of separation from the rest of the UK and will just manipulate this defeatist attitude for their own purposes.

Don’t aid anti-UK nationalism. There is NOTHING inevitable about independence. The trends in public opinion are still strongly in favour of the Union. A strong majority of Scots, a vastly substantial majority of the Welsh and a majority of citizens of Northern Ireland (across the communities) support their part of the Union staying in the UK. The arguments for keeping the UK together are vastly stronger than those of the anti-UK nationalists, who have demonstrated time and time again that they have no viable plans for independence and that re-unification with Eire would be a recipe for disaster, financially, politically and culturally. They are simply trying to force the pro-UK community into submission with continuous pressure of various kinds (a war of attrition) as they have no positive arguments to offer for independence or re-unification, and they know it, hence the pressure tactics of the bully (persuasion has failed so they use intimidation).

Don’t let them. The pro-UK side have by far the better arguments and so deserve to win. Motor on.

Onwards and upwards all those who want to maintain the Union, this United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland is NOWHERE NEAR dead and is fully worth fighting for. Opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of citizens in all parts of the UK (Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland) share a common British identity and still firmly want to keep the UK together. There is NOTHING inevitable about the break-up of the UK. With a positive will, the empty falsehoods and fallacies of anti-UK nationalism can be defeated and a robust, mutually beneficial (for all her parts) Union can exist in perpetuity.

NB: The article does not represent the views of Scotland Matters.

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