By Stephen Bailey

It is a now commonly touted assertion of the SNP that all elections, Westminster or devolved, will be referenda on independence and that if they achieve a majority of seats that will give them a mandate for independence.

The whole concept of the SNP and its mandate is extremely vexed in many ways and on many levels. The idea that the nationalists have a mandate for independence from ANY election, Westminster, devolved executive (Holyrood) or local council is THE major fallacy of elections for Scottish constituencies and highlights yet another major intrinsic flaw in legislative devolution.

The fact is, that the SNP have NO MANDATE FOR INDEPENDENCE AND NEVER HAVE, EVER.

Under the devolution ‘settlement’, a Holyrood election cannot deliver a mandate for independence, as the Constitution is a reserved matter, irrespective of what’s in their manifesto (independence), or that independence is their raison d’être (reason for existing). It can deliver a mandate for a party to form a devolved administration at Holyrood and look after Scotland’s day to day matters ONLY (i.e. all matters that aren’t reserved for Westminster’s consideration), but that’s all. The same is true of devolved elections in Wales and Northern Ireland under UK Constitutional Law (a win at a devolved election will give a party a mandate to form an administration at the devolved legislature (the Welsh ‘parliament or Stormont) to look after that part of the UK’s day to day matters within their devolved remit, but no other mandate).

Added to this, the SNP’s claim to have derived a mandate for separation through receiving a majority of votes from the electorate in elections (Westminster, Holyrood and local council) doesn’t survive the objective scrutiny and rigorous close examination of the hard, objective, verifiable, empirical data.

In the 2014 independence referendum, ‘Yes’ received only 1, 617, 989 votes (44.70%), a losing minority on a turnout of 84.6%, the highest recorded turnout for an election or referendum in the United Kingdom since the January 1910 General Election. ‘No’ received 2,001,926 (55.30%) votes. The registered voters numbered 4, 283, 392.

Looking at the SNP vote at Holyrood and Westminster elections:

2015 (Westminster)-SNP: 1, 454, 436.

2016 (Holyrood)-SNP: 1, 059, 898 (constituency), 953, 587 (regional). Total registered electorate: 3, 930, 000.

2017 (Westminster)-SNP: 977, 568, a drop of 476, 967 from the 2015 election for the nationalists.

2019 (Westminster)-The SNP received 1, 242, 380 of the popular vote.

The SNP got 48 seats on 1, 242, 380 votes (this result includes Labour votes given to the SNP to stop Brexit) on a 55. 6% turnout.

SNP-1, 059, 860.

1, 568, 242 votes were cast, so 38% of the total electorate voted. The SNP received 611, 614 votes, equal to 14.9% of Scots backing the SNP.

2021 (Holyrood):

Bottom line:

— The SNP FAIL to get a majority in Holyrood, so Sturgeon and the SNP can’t pretend that they have a mandate for independence – THEY NEVER COULD HAVE ANYWAY AS UNDER CONSTITUTIONAL LAW NO MANDATE FOR INDEPENDENCE CAN BE RECEIVED FROM A DEVOLVED ELECTION, BUT STILL, THE SNP CAN’T RUN AROUND MAKING OUT THAT IT HAS.

— UNIONIST PARTIES COMBINED VOTE ECLIPSES THAT OF THE PRO-INDEPENDENCE SNP:

-CONSTITUENCY VOTES:

-SNP 1, 291, 204.

— CONSERVATIVE, LABOUR, LIBERAL DEMOCRAT 1, 364, 656.

The final total for the SNP is 30.6% of votes from the eligible Scottish electorate, around a third.

THE SNP HAS NO EXCUSE, FAR LESS A MANDATE FOR INDEPENDENCE.

Source for the above data: The Office for National Statistics. Click here for further details.

The SNP’s victories at Holyrood and Westminster elections represent nothing more than the triumph of a small, vociferous minority (never higher than 32% of the total electorate’s vote) of activists running around and shouting the loudest, drowning out the voice of the overwhelming majority. They only prove that a small and determined group of obsessed, loud and active zealots and extremists can force their will on the rest of the population, completely skewing the genuine will of the majority of the overall population.

Added to the above, the vast majority of opinion polls on independence in Scotland have shown a majority for Scotland staying in the Union, another factor that kills the SNP’s claims to having a mandate for independence from any election, especially on only a third of the vote of the total Scottish electorate. Click on the following link to see a table of opinion polls on independence in Scotland: https://ballotbox.scot/independence/

Winning a majority of seats in Holyrood (but not an overall majority and having to be propped up by two unelected Green Party members) and a majority of seats in Scotland at Westminster doesn’t give the SNP any mandate for independence when they only represent around a third of the total registered electorate AND the vast majority of opinion polls on independence in Scotland continue to show a majority for Scotland staying in the Union AND UK Constitutional Law categorically states that no party can receive a mandate for separation from a devolved election.

All the above highlights yet more major gaping intrinsic flaws in legislative devolution as it falsely magnifies the SNP’s bogus claims (as laid out above) that they have a mandate for independence (they bleat ‘we’ve been elected on a manifesto commitment to independence’) and adds to the already overwhelming bolus of evidence showing that Holyrood is inimical to the maintenance of the Union.

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