Is the Break-Up of the UK Inevitable? Why SNP Fatalism Is Wrong

Written by Stephen Bailey.

Here’s how matters stand as concerns the Constitutional Question in the UK.

First, the SNP has never had a mandate to separate Scotland from the rest of the UK (’independence’), and the facts prove it.

It is a commonly touted SNP assertion that all elections, Westminster or devolved, will be referenda on ‘independence’, and that if they achieve a majority of seats, this will give them a mandate for ‘independence’.

The idea that anti-UK separatism has a mandate for ‘independence’ from ANY election, Westminster, devolved, or local council is THE major fallacy at elections for Scottish constituencies and highlights yet another intrinsic flaw in legislative devolution.

The fact is, the SNP has no mandate for ‘independence’ and never has, ever.

Its victories at Holyrood, Westminster and local council elections represent nothing more than the triumph of a small, vociferous minority (never higher than 36% of the total electorate’s vote) of activists running around and shouting the loudest, drowning out the voice of the overwhelming majority.

They only prove that a small and determined group of obsessed, loud and active zealots and extremists can force their will on the rest of the population, completely skewing the genuine will of the majority of the overall population.

Winning a majority of seats in Holyrood doesn’t give the SNP any mandate for ‘independence’ when they only represent around a third of the total registered electorate AND the vast majority of opinion polls on ‘independence’ in Scotland continue to show a majority for Scotland staying in the UK. Added to the above, in EVERY election during the legislative devolution era (1997 onwards), a majority of Scots have voted for pro-UK parties. No matter how you look at it, a majority of Scots support keeping Scotland in the UK. The same is true in Wales-more Welsh people voted for pro-UK parties in ALL devolved elections ever than for separatist ones.

The bottom-line of UK Constitutional Law is that under New Labour’s legislative devolution ‘settlement’ (a misnomer as it’s actually greatly unsettled and bitterly divided Scotland) a Holyrood election cannot deliver a mandate for ‘independence’, as the Constitution is a reserved matter, regardless of what is in a party’s manifesto (i.e. ‘independence’), or their reason for existing being ‘independence’.

ONLY the National UK Parliament at Westminster can deliver a constitutionally legal and democratically valid mandate for ‘independence’. Even a referendum win for the SNP would only be advisory. It would not provide a legally binding commitment to do so as referendums are only advisory.

It is therefore established conclusively with the facts of UK Constitutional Law that the SNP, or any other party, CANNOT receive a mandate for separation from the UK from a devolved election and that the objective, verifiable, empirical data demonstrates conclusively that the SNP has FAILED to earn a democratic mandate from Scots for breaking up the UK even if it was possible under the Constitution.

Please click on the following link for my previous discussion on this topic, which includes a comprehensive set of fully referenced and sourced election and other relevant data: https://www.scotlandmatters.co.uk/2025/10/27/snp-no-mandate-for-independence-uk-law/

AVOID ANTI-UK SEPARATIST SPONSORED FATALISM

This is the idea that something is going to happen, regardless of what or which course of action is taken to avoid it. It is a dangerous and misguided belief.

It seems to have set in among some of those who say they want to maintain the UK. Some of them appear to have adopted the misguided belief, sponsored by anti-UK separatism (the SNP in Scotland, Plaid Cymru in Wales and IRA/Sinn Fein in Ulster) that the separatists represent the will of the Scottish, or Welsh or Ullish (Ulster) people (despite, as above, never winning much more than a third of the total vote of the Scottish electorate in Scotland’s case (36% is the highest percentage in the 2015 Westminster elections (*1), 27.9% in 2021 for Holyrood (*2), 20.72% of the total Welsh electorate in the 2021 Senedd election for Plaid (*3) and 29% of the total Ulster electorate for IRA/Sinn Fein in the 2022 Stormont election(*4) and that therefore somehow ‘independence’ is inevitable.

This is erroneous and based upon specious thinking, not hard evidence, which contradicts them.

Some politicians, at both UK national and devolved levels, are far too keen on appeasing anti-UK separatism. They appear to have no idea how to take the fight to them, and simply exude an air of downbeat defeatism.

This is toxic, and no good will come of it.

It will only aid the continuance of anti-UK separatist rule and give them undeserved confidence that they can force separation from the rest of the UK on an unwilling public. They are ruthless, sociopathic, narcissistic and monomaniacal in their pursuit of separation from the rest of the UK and will just manipulate this defeatist attitude for their own purposes.

THERE IS NOTHING INEVITABLE ABOUT THE BREAK-UP OF THE UK

Don’t aid anti-UK separatism. There is NOTHING inevitable about ‘independence’.

The trends in public opinion are still strongly in favour of the UK. A strong majority of Scots, a vastly substantial majority of the Welsh and a majority of citizens of Ulster (across the communities) support their part of the Union staying in the UK.

The arguments for keeping the UK together are vastly stronger than those of the anti-UK separatists, who have demonstrated time and again that they have no viable plans for ‘independence’, especially, but not exclusively, economically. Breaking up the UK would be a recipe for disaster, financially, politically and culturally.

They are simply trying to force the pro-UK community into submission with continuous pressure of various kinds (a guerrilla war of attrition) as they have no positive arguments to offer for separation and they know it, hence the pressure tactics of the bully.

Don’t let them. The pro-UK side has by far the better arguments and so deserves to win. Don’t let a vociferous minority force its will on the majority.

Onwards and upwards say all those of us who want to maintain the UK. This United Kingdom of Great Britain and ‘Northern Ireland’ (Ulster) is NOWHERE NEAR dead and is fully worth fighting for.

Opinion polls have consistently shown that a majority of citizens in all parts of the UK (Scotland, England, Wales, and Ulster) share a common British identity and still firmly want to keep the UK together.

There is NOTHING inevitable about the break-up of the UK. With a positive will, the empty falsehoods and fallacies of anti-UK separatism can be defeated and a robust, mutually beneficial Union can exist in perpetuity.

DON’T FORGET-SECURE THE UK-VOTE THE SNP OUT OF POWER IN THE HOLYROOD ELECTIONS AND KEEP PLAID CYMRU OUT OF POWER AT THE SENEDD ELECTIONS THIS MAY.

Sources:

(1) 2015 UK General Election statistics: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7186/

(2) 2021 Holyrood election statistics: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9230/

(3) 2021 Senedd election statistics: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9282/

(4) 2022 Stormont election statistics: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9549/