Devolution Decoded: Scots Have Consistently Backed the Union
Written by Stephen Bailey.
It is a hard, objective, verifiable, empirical fact that more Scots have voted for pro-UK than pro-‘independence’ parties at EVERY Holyrood election EVER.
Let’s have a look at the figures:
1999 (1): At the 1999 Holyrood election, the Scottish Conservatives, Scottish Labour, and Scottish Liberal Democrats, all of which were part of the pro-UK political alignment, received 364,425, 908,346, and 333,179 votes respectively.
The Scottish National Party (SNP), a pro-‘independence’ party, received 672,768 votes (28.7% of the total).
In total:
* Pro-UK votes: 1,605,950 (Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats).
* Pro-‘independence’ votes: 672,768 (SNP).
These figures reflect the popular vote share. The pro-UK parties collectively secured 93 out of 129 seats and the SNP being given 35 seats.
The electorate in Scotland for the 1999 Holyrood election was 4,027,433.
This figure represents the total number of registered voters eligible to participate in the election held on May 6th 1999.
The turnout for the election was approximately 58.1%, meaning about 2.35 million voters cast valid ballots.
This turnout rate was the highest in subsequent Holyrood elections until 2016.
The total Scottish population in 1999 was 5,072,000.
2003: At the 2003 Holyrood election (2):
* Pro-UK parties (Labour, Conservative, Liberal Democrats, and others):
* Labour: 663,585 (constituency) + 561,375 (regional) = 1,224,960 votes.
* Conservative: 318,279 + 296,929 = 615,208 votes
* Liberal Democrats: 294,347 + 225,774 = 520,121 votes.
* Other Unionist/Non-’Independence’ parties: 184,641 (constituency) + 299,946 (regional) = 484,587 votes.
* Total pro-UK votes: 2,844,876,
* Pro-’Independence’ parties (SNP, Scottish Greens, Scottish Socialist Party, and others):
* SNP: 455,722 (constituency) + 399,659 (regional) = 855,381 votes.
* Scottish Greens: 0 (constituency) + 132,138 (regional) = 132,138 votes
* Scottish Socialist Party (SSP): 118,764 (constituency) + 128,026 (regional) = 246,790 votes
* Other pro-’independence’ parties: 184,641 (constituency) + 299,946 (regional) = 484,587 votes (Note: Some votes may overlap with ‘Other’ category)
* Total pro-’Independence’ votes: 1,278,306.
The total Scottish electorate for the 2003 Holyrood election was 3,877,460.
The voter turnout for the 2003 Holyrood election was 49.7%.
This applied to both the constituency vote and the regional list vote.
The total population of Scotland in 2003 was 5,068,500.
2007: At the 2007 Holyrood election (3), the vote split between pro-UK and pro-‘independence’ parties was as follows:
Pro-UK parties:
Scottish Labour: 1,243,789 total votes (30.63%).
* Scottish Conservative: 614,778 total votes (15.14%).
* Scottish Liberal Democrats: 556,883 total votes (13.74%).
* Other pro-UK or unionist parties: 40,431 votes (2.0%).
* → Total pro-UK votes: 2,455,881 (approximately 60.5% of total votes).
Note: The total valid votes were 4,059,844, with a turnout at 51.7%. The pro-UK bloc secured a clear majority in terms of both votes and seats.
* Pro-’independence’ parties:
* Scottish National Party (SNP): 1,297,838 total votes (31.96% of the total vote).
* Scottish Green Party: 85,584 total votes (2.10%).
* Other pro-‘independence’ or ‘independence’-leaning parties: 257,008 votes (6.33%), including smaller parties and independents.
* Total pro-’independence’ votes: 1,640,430.
The total Scottish electorate for the 2007 Holyrood election was 3,899,472.
Total Scottish population in 2007 was In 2007 was 5,170,000.
2011: At the 2011 Holyrood election (4), the vote shares for pro-UK and pro-’independence’ parties were as follows:
* Pro-UK parties:
* Labour: 630,461 constituency votes (31.7%) and 523,469 regional votes (26.3%), totalling 1,153,930 votes (28.99%).
* Conservative: 276,652 constituency votes (13.9%) and 245,967 regional votes (12.4%), totalling 522,619 votes (13.13%).
* Liberal Democrats: 157,714 constituency votes (7.9%) and 103,472 regional votes (5.2%), totalling 261,186 votes (6.56%).
* Other parties: 21,534 constituency votes (1.08%) and 149,809 regional votes (7.52%), totalling 171,343 votes (4.30%).
* Scottish National Party (SNP), the main pro-’independence’ party, received 902,915 constituency votes (45.4%) and 876,421 regional votes (44.0%), totalling 1,779,336 votes.
Thus, pro-UK parties collectively received approximately 2,107,144 votes (53.1%), while the SNP received 1,779,336 votes (44.7%).
The SNP were given 69 seats, the Labour Party won 37 seats, the Conservatives gained 15 seats, and the Liberal Democrats won 5 seats.
Notably, despite the SNP’s overall majority in seats, the pro-UK parties collectively received a higher share of the total vote (approximately 50.3% of the total valid votes), but due to the electoral system, the pro-’independence’ bloc was given a parliamentary majority.
The total electorate for the 2011 Holyrood
election had 3,950,626 registered voters.
The total turnout at the 2011 Holyrood election was 50.6%, according to the Electoral Commission.
This represented a slight decrease from the 53.9% turnout recorded in the 2007 election.
The total usually resident population of Scotland on Census Day, 27th March 2011, was 5,295,403.
This marked the highest population ever recorded in Scotland at that time, representing a rise of 233,392 people (4.6%) since the 2001 census.
2016 Holyrood election (5):
Pro-UK parties (Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats):
* Constituency vote:
* Conservatives: 501,844 votes(22.0%).
* Labour: 514,261 votes (22.6%).
* Liberal Democrats: 178,238 votes(7.8%).
* Total (constituency): 1,194,343 votes.
* Regional list vote:
* Conservatives: 524,222 votes(22.9%).
* Labour: 435,919 votes (19.1%)
* Liberal Democrats: 119,284 votes(5.2%).
* Total (regional): 1,079,425 votes.
* Combined total (constituency + regional): 2,273,768 votes.
Pro-‘Independence’ parties (SNP and Greens):
* Constituency vote:
* SNP: 1,059,898 votes (46.5%)
* Greens: 13,172 votes (0.6%).
* Total (constituency): 1,073,070 votes.
* Regional list vote:
* SNP: 953,587 votes (41.7%).
* Greens: 150,426 votes (6.6%),
* Total (regional): 1,104,013 votes.
* Combined total (constituency + regional): 2,177,083 votes.
The total electorate for the 2016 Scottish Parliament election was 4,098,462 registered voters.
The voter turnout in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election was:
* 55.8% for the constituency vote(2,288,369 votes cast).
* 55.9% for the regional list vote(2,289,564 votes cast).
The total population of Scotland in 2016 was 5,404,700.
2021: The 2021 Holyrood election (6)
results show a clear division in voting preferences between pro-UK and pro-‘independence’ parties.
*
* Pro-UK parties received 1,885,578 votes in total:
* Scottish Conservatives: 592,526 (constituency) + 637,131 (regional) = 1,229,657.
* Scottish Labour: 584,392 (constituency) + 485,819 (regional) = 1,070,211.
* Scottish Liberal Democrats: 187,816 (constituency) + 137,151 (regional) = 324,967.
* Total pro-UK votes: 1,229,657 + 1,070,211 + 324,967 = 2,624,835.
* Pro-’independence’ parties received 1,885,578 votes in total:
* Scottish National Party (SNP): 1,291,204 (constituency) + 1,094,374 (regional) = 2,385,578 (Note: This includes votes from both ballots, but the total valid votes were 2,712,783).
* Scottish Greens: 220,324 (regional) = 220,324.
* Total pro-independence votes: 2,385,578 (SNP) + 220,324 (Greens) = 2,605,902.
The total electorate for the 2021 Holyrood election was 4,280,785 registered voters.
The total voter turnout for the 2021 Holyrood election was 63.5%, the highest recorded for a Holyrood election.
This figure applies to both the constituency and regional list ballot
The total population of Scotland, according to the 2022 census, was 5,436,600.
Hard facts don’t lie. A majority of Scots have voted for keeping Scotland in the UK in EVERY Holyrood election EVER and consequently, the SNP have no basis, no justification, for claiming a mandate for ‘independence’.
Sources:
(1) 1999 and 2003 Holyrood election data: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7529/
(2) 2007 Holyrood election data: https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/RP07-46/RP07-46.pdf
(3) 2011 Holyrood election data: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/rp11-41/
(4) 2016 Holyrood election data: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7599/
(5) 2021 Holyrood election data: https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9230/
(6) Scottish population figures from the Office for National Statistics: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/datasets/populationestimatesforukenglandandwalesscotlandandnorthernireland
© 2017-2025 Stephen Bailey










