The Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS)1 report is supposed to provide illumination and greater understanding of fiscal issues in contemporary Scotland. GERS is produced by statisticians in the Scottish Government and subject to accreditation as a National Records Scotland publication.
Nevertheless, this has not prevented the usual chorus of fact-free denialism gripping typical corners of Scottish politics. In almost Trumpian fashion, the usual suspects are both hailing GERS as revealing a Scotland “recovering from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic faster than the UK as a whole”, while maintaining a history of rubbishing the very same report.
Last Wednesday Deputy First Minister John Swinney boasted that
“Today’s figures show Scotland’s fiscal position is recovering faster than the UK’s, with a huge fall in the annual deficit thanks to the largest increase in revenues on record”2
Putting aside the heroic levels of spin Mr Swinney is engaging in (we’ll return to that soon), what is more interesting is the distinctly dicey relationship between this Scottish Government and reality.
An obvious point is that while it is true Scotland’s net fiscal balance (deficit) is improving faster than the UK; it is still more than double the rest of the UK. So, is the glass half full or half empty? Is Scotland’s deficit improving faster than the UK? Or is Scotland’s notional deficit still twice UK level, despite the unprecedented jump in tax revenues? It’s actually more nuanced than John Swinney’s boasting.
But the SNP have a history of dismissing GERS reports when the facts do not fit their narrative, and embracing them when they do.