It has become something of a cliché for contemporary Scottish nationalists that “demographics are destiny”. The argument maintains that time is on the pro-Independence movement’s side. That an increasingly diversifying younger electorate – which is instinctively more pro-independence than older voters will shift the political dial. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has previously explained that this is fundamental to her whole strategy for obtaining independence.

While it is true that older people were more reluctant to vote ‘yes’ in 2014 than younger people, the truth is somewhat more complex than that. For one thing, the youngest age bracket in the September 2014 referendum vote were not the most enthusiastic ‘Yessers’.

YouGov did a poll on September 18 2014, in which they contacted a sum total of 2,500 interviewees (so a healthy sample size). The findings proved close to the actual result, predicting ‘No’ would win by 54% (whereas the ‘No’ side actually won by 55%).

That YouGov poll found only 49% of those aged 16-24 voted ‘Yes’. In actual fact, the key age brackets driving the ‘Yes’ vote back in 2014 were those aged 25-39 (55% voting ‘yes’)2.

Ashcroft also conducting a poll at the time analysing the age makeup of the ‘Yes’ voters at the time. According to the Ashcroft poll (sample size 2,047), the youngest age bracket was not as enthusiastic ‘yes’ as opposed to those in their late 20s at the time.

Want to see more SNP fails? – Health Matters

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