NatWest/RBS would move OUT of Scotland after nearly 300 years if country votes for independence – The Sun

THE Royal Bank of Scotland would move out of Scotland after nearly 300 years if the country votes for independence, it has confirmed.

CEO Alison Rose said the bank, which last year changed its name from RBS Group to NatWest, would move its headquarters out of Scotland if the country backs a Yes vote.

RBS said ahead of the 2014 independence referendum that it would move its HQ to London – and Ms Rose announced that it still the bank’s position just days before the Scottish parliamentary election on May 6.

As reported by Reuters, Ms Rose said, despite the bank being “neutral” on independence, its “balance sheet would be too big” for the Scottish economy if the country breaks away from the UK.

State-backed NatWest has been based for 294 years in Edinburgh.

Ms Rose said: “In the event that there was independence for Scotland our balance sheet would be too big for an independent Scottish economy.

“And so we would move our registered headquarters, in the event of independence, to London.”

Ms Rose, who became CEO in 2019, added: “We are neutral on the issue of Scottish independence. It’s something for the Scottish people to decide.”

Investment bank Morgan Stanley this week put the chance of Scottish independence at 15 per cent, while rival Citi put it as high as 35 per cent.

A vote for the SNP would mean another wasted decade in Scotland – The Spectator

Sometimes, Westminster unwittingly makes quite a good case for Scottish independence. Britain’s Covid emergency has ended, but the damage of the last year is enormous: the knock-on effects of lockdown can be seen in NHS waiting lists, the devastated high street, the mental health backlog and the 20,000 pupils who are absent from the school register. There is urgent work to do, yet the government is engaged in a battle to the death over who paid for wallpaper in Downing Street.

We see a Prime Minister at war with his ex-adviser, unable to rise above the fray and capitalise on the opportunity of his vaccine success. Then there’s the opposition, unable to oppose. It’s not hard to see why many Scots might opt to press the ‘eject’ button by voting for the Scottish National Party in the Holyrood election next week.

Nicola Sturgeon would use a majority for independence by starting an immediate campaign for a referendum that would dominate Scottish politics for years, to the exclusion of all other issues. It’s worth asking what precisely that would mean.

The issues facing Scots are identical to those faced in England: the Covid-19 crisis is in retreat, but the deep societal damage of a year of lockdowns is increasingly evident. Some 3,550 fewer cancer diagnoses were made in Scotland last year, a fall of nearly 14 per cent. Scotland’s NHS is in no shape to play catch-up: even before the pandemic, waiting times for long-term health procedures were already estimated to be worse than in England. Generally, public services are less well run north of the border.

As for children, lockdown has hit poorest pupils hardest. But already poor pupils in Scotland were little more than half as likely as their English counterparts to get to university. Never have Scots been in more need of focused, effective government. But if they end up with an SNP majority there will be a non-stop campaign for separation; every policy will be used to drive another wedge between Scotland and England.

Sturgeon has admitted to having made no calculations about the economic impact of independence — which is odd, given that independence is her party’s reason for existing. But its chief policy seems to be the suspension of disbelief.

The pandemic is expected to have left Scotland with a deficit of up to 25 per cent of GDP, higher than any other country in the world. Any country joining the European Union needs a deficit no higher than 3 per cent of GDP: independence would mean sado-austerity with cuts far bigger than anything attempted by David Cameron or George Osborne.

Scotland joining the EU would also mean — under EU rules — border controls with England and a consequent hammer blow to trade. North Sea revenues, even if they had not collapsed, would never fill this gap.

By being in the Union during the pandemic, Scotland benefited from the safety net of being in the UK. The furlough scheme was financed by the UK Treasury’s borrowing power. Scotland is now coming out of lockdown due to having vaccination levels that are higher, by some margin, than anywhere on the Continent. By no coincidence, Scotland’s Covid deaths are down by 99 per cent — the same as in England. No European country except Portugal can say the same.

Recovering from the pandemic will take a generation. A vote for the SNP would mean another wasted decade in Scotland, with all political energies being focused on the constitutional question rather than on repairing the damage. Nicola Sturgeon argues that independence is needed to deal with the country’s post-Covid problems. But it is hard to see how Scotland having to cut public spending while not having its own central bank would help address these issues.

The best case for the Union has been made by Anas Sarwar, the new leader of Scottish Labour, in recent weeks. His message is that Scotland needs a recovery, not a referendum. If that message fails, unionists have to face up to the grim truth that, after 14 years in power and despite its dismal record, the SNP has found a way to game the devolution system. By convincing the 45 per cent of pro-independence voters that national liberation lies around the corner, Sturgeon’s party can guarantee itself victory after victory.

Devolution was not intended to deliver independence. As one Labour grandee famously said, it would ‘kill nationalism stone dead’. Even Tony Blair, with his new long hair, now admits that this was a misjudgment: it instead gave secessionists a platform from which to pursue the un-doing of the United Kingdom.

A pro-independence majority next week will take the SNP closer than ever to this goal. If the Tories have any sense of preservation — of the country, and of their party — they should give Scotland their full attention in the remaining days of the campaign.

Loch Lomond: More than 1,000 bags of litter cleared from Loch Lomond National Park in just one month – The Scotsman

Staff from the National Park Authority, local councils and communities gathered together to “get a head start on the issue” ahead of the parks’ busiest months.

The focus was primarily around the A82, a traditional trouble spot for litter.

Lay-bys, verges and undergrowth along a 15 mile stretch from Duck Bay to Tarbetstretch were monitored and cleared of all rubbish by the team.

416 bags were lifted from this section alone.

West Dunbartonshire Council also organised an A82 clean up from Barloan Toll roundabout in Dumbarton to Stoneymollan roundabout above Balloch.

Simon Jones, Director of Environment and Visitor Services at Loch Lomond & The Trossachs National Park Authority said: “We have dedicated staff time right through April to help clean the National Park up before the influx of visitors we are expecting this summer.

“We’ve seen a big difference already with visible improvements on the A82 in particular.

“Despite this effort from our staff, partners, local businesses and communities, there is more to be done, so we are calling on everyone to take responsibility for respecting and protecting this special place.

“As well as being a serious threat to the National Park’s wildlife, litter impacts local communities and affects visitors’ enjoyment while they are here. Coming out of lockdown, the benefits that people get from spending time in nature are more important than ever.

North Ayrshire COVID: Care home deaths in each facility finally revealed – Irvine Times

The number of people who died in every care home across Scotland has been revealed, showing for the first time the extent to which some of the most vulnerable in our society were affected by the virus.

The data was released by the Crown Office and is available to view via an interactive dashboard.

It shows the care homes and operators that were hardest hit by the novel coronavirus and is part of an investigation to determine if the deaths should be the subject of a fatal accident inquiry or prosecution

Many have questioned the way that hospitalised patients were discharged into care homes at the beginning of the pandemic, without a proper testing regime in place and a lack of understanding regarding asymptomatic spread.

Care home operators have said they were let down by government policies at the beginning of the pandemic.

The Scottish Government maintains that saving lives has always been at the forefront of its decision making.

The extent to which care homes had been affected had been unclear, with care providers under no legal obligation to publish information.

The Crown Office figures shows that of the 351 COVID related deaths recorded in North Ayrshire since the beginning of the pandemic, 24.9 per cent occurred in care homes.

That figure is lower than the national average.

There have been more than 10,000 COVID-related

deaths in Scotland with around a third of all those being said to have occurred in care homes.

The breakdown for each care home in North Ayrshire is as follows:

Fullarton Care Home – 20 deaths – 5.7 per cent

Arran View Care Home – 18 deaths – 5.1 per cent

Spiers Care Home – 13 deaths – 3.7 per cent

Buckreddan Care Centre – 9 deaths – 2.6 per cent

Caledonia Care Home – 8 deaths – 2.3 per cent

Shalom Nursing Home – 7 deaths – 2 per cent

Abbeyfield House Care Home – 6 deaths – 1.7 per cent

South Beach House – <5 deaths – 0.3 per cent

Haylie House Residential Home – <5 deaths – 0.3 per cent

Glenburnie House – <5 deaths – 0.3 per cent

Cumbrae Lodge Care Home – <5 – 0.3 per cent

Anam Cara – <5 – 0.3 per cent

Abbotsford Nursing Home – <5 deaths – 0.3 per cent

On Sunday, Nicola Sturgeon called for a UK-wide public inquiry into the pandemic by the end of the year, adding she would move ahead with a Scottish-only probe if that can’t be agreed in good time.

UK secures 60 million extra Pfizer doses for booster jabs – STV News

An extra 60 million doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech coronavirus jab have been secured by the UK Government for a booster vaccination programme in the autumn.

Officials are preparing a booster programme based on clinical need to ensure people have the strongest possible protection against the virus, according to the Department for Health and Social Care (DHSC).

This additional stock of the Pfizer/BioNTech jab – which has been rolled out in the UK since December – will be used alongside other approved vaccines for the booster programme.

Health secretary Matt Hancock said: “Our vaccination programme is bringing back our freedom, but the biggest risk to that progress is the risk posed by a new variant.

“We’re working on our plans for booster shots, which are the best way to keep us safe and free while we get this disease under control across the whole world.

“These further 60 million doses will be used, alongside others, as part of our booster programme from later this year, so we can protect the progress that we’ve all made.”

The Government said it will publish further details on the booster programme in due course, with the policy informed by advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI).

It will also assess the results of clinical trials which have studied the use of different combinations of approved vaccines.

It comes as offical figures revealed at least 10,078 people have died in Scotland with confirmed or suspected coronavirus.

On Wednesday, National Records of Scotland revealed there were 23 deaths linked to Covid registered between April 19-25, a fall of one from the previous week.

Of the new NRS figures, the majority were in hospital at 18, with three in care homes and two at home or in non-institutional settings.

There were seven deaths in the Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area, as well as four in Lanarkshire and three in both Lothian and Tayside.

At council level, the highest number of deaths occurred in Edinburgh, North Lanarkshire and West Dunbartonshire, each registering three.

NRS also reported that 39% of the deaths were of people aged 75 and over, with 35% under 65.

Out of the 23 deaths, 70% were male and 30% were female.

Pete Whitehouse, director of statistical services at NRS, said: “The latest figures show another slight reduction in deaths where Covid-19 has been the underlying cause or a contributory factor, but every single death remains a tragedy.

“We know families, friends, and communities across the country are still being affected by the loss of loved ones due to this virus.

“Of these deaths, a majority of 18 occurred in hospitals, with three deaths in care homes, and two deaths occurring at home or in non-institutional settings.

“The 1103 deaths from all causes registered last week remains slightly above the five-year average, an increase of 3% compared to 2015-2019.”

The SNP has abandoned the poor – ThinkScotland

THE SNP has abandoned any attempt at helping the poor in Scotland – now over a fifth of the population.  The SNP Government has failed to put any meaningful effort into addressing the underlying causes of poverty and as a result has a shameful record of rising poverty across all measures.

Scottish Government data demonstrates clearly that poverty has increased substantially in Scotland since the SNP came to power, whereas previously it was in decline. Latest figures show that 20 per cent of Scotland’s population (1.03 million people each year) were living in relative poverty after housing costs in 2019-20. This is a substantial increase over the 16 per cent recorded in 2010/11.

Child poverty in particular has shot up, with 30,000 more kids in poverty in the last pre-covid year as the child poverty rate shot up from 23 to 26 per cent. Food insecurity is rising too, reaching 9 per cent of the population in 2019.

It’s the poorest areas that are doing the worst under SNP rule. Live there and you will likely die 13 years earlier than Scots living in better-off areas. Moreover you will have 25 years less of good health.

Those with drug issues or who become homeless are particularly vulnerable. Scotland has achieved infamy as the drug deaths capital of Europe, with a drug deaths rate three times higher than the rest of the UK. Similarly homeless deaths are three times higher than the rest of the UK and as with drug deaths have been steadily increasing over recent years.

In education again the poor have been betrayed. Closing the notorious poverty-related attainment gap, whereby poorer kids are more likely to fail to make it to university, was said by the SNP to be one of its major goals. But after 14 years no progress has been made, with only 26 per cent of kids from deprived areas going to university compared to the 60 per cent who succeed from the better-off areas. In some respects it is getting worse. A March 2021 Audit Scotland Report highlighted the fact that now the “gap is wider at higher levels of award.”

Where then does the SNP direct the Scottish taxpayers’ resources?  Not towards to the poor but rather to help its own supporters in the wealthy bureaucratic elite that runs Scotland and amongst younger members of the middle class.

This is demonstrated by the extensive £6 billion range of election bribes offered by the SNP at the current election. You don’t help the poor by financing fee dental care for all – those on low incomes already get free dental care anyway. You don’t help poor kids by handing free bikes and laptops to all schoolchildren. You help them by improving the quality of education poorer kids receive. We used to be good at this in Scotland, education was once a key route out of poverty.

The full range of election bribes are not, in any case, affordable. Money to pay for them has been pulled together by skimping on or cutting other areas. For example by the SNP is not distributing all the Covid relief money received from the UK Treasury, £2.7 billion of which is unaccounted for, according to the Scottish Auditor General.

The SNP has also spent less on health.  As the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies has explained, “the NHS has been prioritised to a lesser extent than in England. As a result, Scottish health spending per person is now just 3 per cent higher than in England, versus 22 per cent at the start of the devolution”.

Lower spending on health has been accompanied by harsh cuts elsewhere. For example when the SNP came to power there were 352 rehab beds and 455 annual drug deaths but – after SNP funding cuts by 2018 the rehab beds had dropped to 70 and the annual drug deaths had risen to 1187. Other funds have been raised by brutal cuts to local government services. Cuts since 2014 have amounted to £1,544 per household and many services have worsened significantly.  Further cuts are being made. For example, the SNP-run Glasgow council has announced that an extraordinary 40 sports venues or pitches, five libraries, and 11 community centres are being permanently closed.

The need for cuts to enable the SNP to afford its election bribes is derived from SNP failure on the economy.  Growth is a third less than the rest of the UK and there is both lower investment and lower productivity. This not only means fewer good jobs but also lower tax revenues.

Failing to help the poor in order to provide election bribes to younger voters is not a sensible long-term strategy that has the interests of Scotland to heart.

SNP’s ‘shameful legacy’ as Glasgow sports hubs lie padlocked, neglected and covered in rubbish – The Sun

PUBLIC sports facilities lie padlocked or neglected in Scotland’s biggest city – just years after Glasgow’s Commonwealth Games and its much-touted “legacy” for grassroots physical activity.

The Scottish Sun visited sports courts and pitches on a list of venues the city’s SNP-run council wants to offload amid a cash crisis following the pandemic.

And what we found was tonight branded a “shameful legacy” amid a furious election rammy over the fate of dozens of facilities on Nicola Sturgeon’s home patch.

Despite a crucial need for citizens to keep fit and healthy to fend off Covid and following lockdown, we told last week how the local authority’s arms-length leisure trust has listed nearly 60 community venues that are not currently expected to reopen.

As part of the controversial plan, several historic library buildings are under threat – sparkling anger among locals.

A list of community halls are also expected to remain closed – at least for now – and Glasgow City Council has effectively advertised for outside groups or the public to potentially take over facilities, in order to save cash.

Many of the sports and community sites that council offshoot Glasgow Life say are not currently due to reopen serve some of the city’s most-deprived communities.

In Victoria Park, Whiteinch, tennis and basketball courts have remained padlocked despite lockdown being over.

Football goalposts are piled up next to an abandoned pavilion where locals say bored teenagers have been hanging around boozing.

Rubbish is strewn on previously-maintained bowling greens in the park, in scenes echoed in other parks including Bellahouston Park, a couple of miles away over the Clyde.

The SNP would wreck Scotland’s defence – Reaction

In my home city of Perth proudly stands the Black Watch Museum. It commemorates the history of that great regiment: “from Fontenoy to Fallujah with Ticonderoga, Waterloo, Alamein and two World Wars in between, the Black Watch has been there when the world’s history has been shaped.”

It’s a reminder that for over 300 years Scotland and England have defended freedom side by side; together we’ve fought fascism and aggression in Europe and terrorism across the globe. Scottish soldiers, Scottish airmen and women, Scottish sailors have helped keep these islands safe. But they have done so much more: together they’ve helped to advance our values – of freedom under the law and respect for international order – across the world.

Today our aircraft carriers, launched from Rosyth, are sailing the globe to help keep the peace alongside our allies. Scottish pilots are flying RAF Typhoons to police Baltic airspace against Russian incursion. Scottish troops serve in Africa, Asia and the Middle East to help underpin fragile democracies and protect our European security. These operations, always in support of international law and multi-lateral treaties, put the liberal values of the Scottish enlightenment into practical and humanitarian effect.

Britain has the strongest defence forces in Europe and is the fifth biggest defence power in the world. That strength and power, second only to the United States amongst the democracies, is for the common good. And it’s only possible because Scotland and England together, with Wales and Northern Ireland, are so much more than the sum of their parts.

Scotland plays a central part in the defence of the British Isles. The Royal Navy’s base on the Clyde hosts all its submarines, not just the Trident boats, and employs 8,500 people. Orders for nine new frigates are being placed with shipyards on the Clyde and the Forth, employing thousands more. RAF Lossiemouth, employing another 2,200, hosts half the RAF’s Typhoon squadrons and will house the UK’s nine P-8 maritime patrol aircraft. Thousands of troops, including the 51st Infantry Brigade and five battalions of the Royal Regiment of Scotland, are stationed across Scotland, always ready to help out whether it’s flooding or the Covid vaccination programme.

British defence combines the best of each nation. Those aircraft carriers were built block by block in both Scottish and English shipyards. Our RAF Typhoons are assembled in Lancashire with sophisticated avionics from Edinburgh. Every regiment in the British Army would be poorer

without its Scottish men and women. Scots have always served at the very highest ranks in the British military. Many of Wellington’s generals were Scots. Admiral Duncan from Dundee saved us from the Dutch at Camperdown; Admiral Cochrane from Hamilton helped lead Brazil, Chile and Peru to independence; Admiral John Paul from Kirkcudbright is recognised as “the Father of the American Navy”.

Our defence of these islands is successful because it is interwoven. The RAF holds fighter jets at instant readiness at both Lossiemouth in Moray and Coningsby in Lincolnshire to intercept Russian aircraft entering our air defence zone and to prevent a 9/11-style attack on any of our cities, in Scotland or England: those jets, with tanker support, must cover the whole of our flight information region in minutes. Terrorist hijackers won’t ask permission to overfly any Scottish border.

The Royal Navy protects fisheries around Scottish coasts but also the key transatlantic cables that are so vital for the commercial centres of Edinburgh and Glasgow. Our Vanguard submarines are on constant patrol from Faslane to deter any potential nuclear attacker from targeting Scottish as well as English cities. The P-8 maritime patrol aircraft at Lossiemouth and the new anti-submarine frigates being built on the Clyde in turn protect the deterrent.

A separate Scotland would undermine all this. Small-scale Scottish-only forces would have to be constructed from amongst those who were willing to transfer from each of the Royal Navy, Royal Air Force, Army and UK Strategic Command. The Nationalists propose a Scottish military comprising just four warships, a couple of RAF squadrons, and an army brigade. To keep Scotland safe such a small force would necessarily have to contract out some key defence functions such as air policing, cyber security, and the use of enablers such as helicopters, just as the Irish Republic relies on the RAF to police its own airspace.

But size isn’t the only issue. An independent Scotland would have to develop a separate defence policy. And here the difficulties begin: the separatists haven’t yet started to think this through. The SNP submission to the UK government’s Integrated Review comprises just seven pages on defence; there’s not a single costing for the hundreds of millions of pounds involved in the dismembering of our Armed Forces and the loss of so many defence jobs across Scotland.

The only defence policy they do put forward shows the poverty and insularity of separatist thinking. The SNP wants us to forget about “out of area operations of dubious benefit” and focus instead just on the Arctic Circle and the “High North”. This ignores the real world threats from international terrorism, from a nuclear-armed Iran, from Russian and Chinese aggression, and from growing instability in Africa. To counter the increasing danger of cyber-attacks – of the kind we’ve already seen on Scottish companies, on our NHS, on Parliament – the Nationalists’ only answer is to propose an “ambassador for hybrid affairs”. To stop President Putin interfering in our country – remember the Salisbury poisonings – they suggest that we only need to reform the funding of political parties to curb foreign donations (which are already illegal).

These aren’t real world answers. In fact, they would weaken our security and leave us less safe. An independent Scotland would mean a weaker NATO; a fractured Britain would be more vulnerable to Russian aggression, more exposed to Islamist terrorism, less able to counter Chinese interference. In the real world our adversaries would welcome a weaker Britain. Look how Russia has preyed on the instability of the Balkans; China takes full advantage of over-indebted countries; cyber warriors won’t be deterred by an “ambassador for hybrid affairs”.

Let’s look at that defence policy in detail. First, the Nationalists propose that Scotland joins NATO in its own right: Scotland would take its place around the NATO table next to Slovakia and Slovenia. But NATO is a nuclear alliance: its members accept that they come under the nuclear umbrella, the protection provided by the US and UK nuclear deterrents. To quote NATO: “The supreme guarantee of the security of the Alliance is provided by the strategic nuclear forces of the Alliance”. Each new member of NATO (and an independent Scotland would be a new member) has to accept this on joining. Even when they don’t have nuclear weapons of their own, NATO members support NATO’s nuclear sharing arrangement under which many members provide dual-capability aircraft and the bases from which they can fly. All NATO members (except France which has its own nuclear forces) take part in NATO nuclear planning, including Canada and Norway. Even if a separate Scottish government rejected our Vanguard submarines and closed their base at Faslane, Scotland in NATO would still be unable to opt out of nuclear protection.

Second, the SNP proposes that Scotland (and indeed the UK) should no longer commit to “out of area operations”: instead, a separate Scotland would restrict its NATO contribution to its north-western boundary: the Arctic Circle and the High North. There are indeed growing tensions in NATO’s north, as the climate warms and the northern trade passage opens up. But those countries most concerned, Norway, Sweden, Finland and the Baltic states, are looking to strengthen, not break up their partnerships with larger neighbours. Norway is working with the United States and the UK on Atlantic patrolling, and the Nordic and Baltic states have joined the British-led Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF).

But the threats to the security of our islands are not just European. Since the beginning of this century they have been increasingly international. Adversaries such as Russia and China, Iran and North Korea, breach international treaties and directly threaten our way of life. The Skripal poisoning could have occurred in Stirling as easily as in Salisbury. Sputnik broadcasts Russian propaganda from an office in Edinburgh. Chinese hackers steal intellectual property from companies north and south of Hadrian’s Wall.

And then there is terrorism, the biggest international threat of all. Daesh, Al Qaeda and their offshoots remain very dangerous to any of us in the West. The NATO mission in Afghanistan and our coalition protecting Iraq aren’t just about defending their democracies: they’re there to defend ours. Scotland – like England, like France, like Spain – is in the firing-line. Islamist extremists attacked Glasgow Airport the day after they planted car bombs in London in 2007. Four of the Britons slaughtered by Islamist terrorists on the beach in Tunisia in 2015 were Scots.

Dealing effectively with terrorism means dealing with it at source, and certainly “out of area”. British troops – Scots battalions amongst them – have served tour after tour in Afghanistan to restrict safe havens from which attacks in British and European cities can be directed or inspired. Scottish RAF pilots and army trainers, including 3 Rifles from Edinburgh, are part of the 75-nation strong coalition driving the Daesh out of Iraq. Those airstrikes and that training have helped to reduce attacks on British and European cities: to their shame, the Scottish Nationalists in Parliament voted each time against joining our allies in those UN-backed operations.

Protecting us from terrorist attacks and “grey zone” interference also depends upon intense intelligence and co-operation with our closest allies. Britain in particular relies on its membership of the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing partnership between the UK, the US, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. If it were outside the protection of GCHQ (including our world-leading National Cyber Security Centre) and no longer part of the new UK National Cyber Force, Scotland would obviously be less able to forestall cyber-attacks on its citizens and its companies.

A separate Scotland would also be retreating from the world. Through the United Kingdom Scotland shares one of the five permanent seats on the United Nations Security Council and one of the seven seats at the annual G-7 economic summit. These leadership positions matter when it comes to upholding the rules-based international order on which Scotland’s security and prosperity ultimately depends. If you believe that international borders should not be changed by force, then you must respond to Ukraine’s call for equipment and training to resist Russian aggression. If you believe in upholding the treaty safeguarding Hong Kong (much of its success owing to Scottish finance and expertise), then you have to stand up to Chinese bullying. Effective deterrence and defence involve deploying our military power – ships, troops and aircraft – across the globe alongside our allies.

In fact, Scotland has always looked outwards. The prosperity of our islands was largely built on Scottish merchants and entrepreneurs, trading across the globe. Inside or outside the United Kingdom the Scottish economy depends on trade with the rest of the world: it’s always been in Scotland’s interest to keep those trade routes open, whether it’s the Strait of Hormuz in the Gulf, the Bab-el-Mandeb in the Red Sea or the Strait of Malacca in the Pacific. Leaving the United Kingdom would not enable Scotland to opt out the global economy; nor morally could Scotland leave international policing of its trade routes to everybody else. That’s why there’s an Australian frigate operating in the Gulf, far from home.

Finally, those forces that a separate Scotland would try to retain would be further weakened by two extraordinary reforms that the SNP proposes. First, that servicemen and women should be allowed a trade union, described as a “representative body”. That trade union would have pay-bargaining rights and the ability to take up disciplinary concerns: this would completely undermine the chain of command. Second, 17 year-olds, though adult enough to be given the vote in a Scottish referendum, would now be barred from joining up until they were 18, thus making recruitment more difficult.

Reducing Scotland’s role in the world and dismembering our Royal Navy, Army and Royal Air Force would leave us all less safe. It would weaken NATO and would play into the hands of our adversaries, especially those in Moscow, Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran who wish us harm. But it would also come at a huge economic cost. There’s no pricing in the SNP’s policy for the millions to be spent on re-organising and re-basing each of our armed forces.

Nor have they considered the impact on employment and Scottish industry. It isn’t just the jobs at military bases in Edinburgh, Leuchars, Arbroath, Lossiemouth and Faslane that would be under threat. Defence is a major industry with over 10,000 high-value jobs across Scotland depending on £1.75 billion of UK defence spending annually. And it’s a significant exporter: over 20 major defence companies have manufacturing, research and other facilities in Scotland.

There would be immediate employment consequences from partition: Royal Navy warships are only built in UK yards, so could no longer be ordered from the Clyde. Babcock’s construction of the common missile compartment for the UK Dreadnought and US Columbia submarine programmes would have to be moved from Rosyth. RAF Typhoons and maritime patrol aircraft would leave Lossiemouth.

But there would be longer-term consequences too. Major contractors such as Thales in Glasgow, Leonardo in Edinburgh and Raytheon in Fife would have to re-assess their locations. These are high-value white collar jobs closely linked to Scottish universities. Scotland would also lose its share of the UK’s £2.5 billion space programme, including the spaceport planned for Sutherland.

We need to consider all this with our eyes wide open. Scotland could pull out of the United Kingdom’s defence and minimise its role and influence in the world. Scotland could reduce itself to the likes of Slovakia and Slovenia: small countries can join NATO. Dismembering our long-standing Royal Navy, Army and Royal Air Force would be complicated, painful and extremely costly. The question that the separatists must answer is, would all this be really worth it if the result is a Scotland much less safe than it is today?

And morally this is very different from any economic argument. Some Scottish voters could indeed choose to risk becoming poorer, at least in the short-term, in return for the perceived gains of independence. But to decide wilfully to make Scotland less safe – at a time when the threats to our security are agreed to have significantly increased – would be perverse.

And there’s something else. Scots have never opted out of our own defence. Nemo me impune lacessit – nobody attacks me with impunity – is the Black Watch regimental motto. Scotland has never left its defence to others. It shouldn’t do so now.

Sir Michael Fallon is a former Secretary of State for Defence.

Letters to the press, 28/04/21: Indy clarity over mortgages, Judge SNP on education shortcomings, Indy obsession.

SNP has ‘underestimated depth of independence austerity’ – The Times

An independent Scotland would have to implement a more stringent form of “austerity” than the vision outlined in the SNP’s Growth Commission because of the pandemic, according to a leading economist.

David Phillips, associate director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), warned that the country would be left “with a relatively high budget deficit, substantially higher than the rest of the UK” in the event of a “yes” vote.